Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

In addition, I find that Taleb criticizes scientists without making the distinction between real scientists and those who call themselves scientists and those who the media call scientists. Real scientists are certainly the more IMprobable to be quoted in our society. He also seems to equate mathematical modeling with science, and he confuses amplitude and frequency in his example of filtering noise.

This book, however, is well written and well worth the read.


Very very interesting - and very good about randomness   November 26, 2001
Epictetus (City of London United Kingdom)
3 out of 8 found this review helpful

I nearly did not buy this book because of some of the very negative reviews on these Amazon pages. But I'm glad I did. At the time of writing, the average review of this book is a mediocre review, but at the time of writing this review there are no actual mediocre reviews. The explanation is that the variance of the reviews is very high, either very good or very bad - which averages to mediocre. I find that when there is a high variance in surveys completed by people, the subject matter of that which is surveyed is often more interesting than the subject matter of surveys which yield more or less unanimously good or unanimously bad reviews. (Bimodal rather than unimodal distibutions in other words). This is the case here.

If any of the above makes sense to you, then you will understand where Taleb is coming from, to coin a phrase. To take some of the criticisms made in other reviews: is Taleb a boasting egomaniac? No - quite the opposite, he tells stories against himself and states that he suffers most of all from the faults that he identifies in others; does Taleb fail to deal with major issues in statistics? No - but I suspect that to some people who lack a solid grounding in the principles of statistics, it may seem that he does, because he is primarily concerned with dealing with issues beyond those treated by our current statistical methodology, for example the propblem of induction and falsification (as in Hume, Popper and Nelson Goodman).

There will be little new theoretical material in this book for those who have a background in mathematics, quantitative finance, quantitative economics or philosophy (in the analytical rather than the continental tradition), but the value of Taleb's book is in two things. First, he applies the theoretical to practical trading problems, or more specifically he shows the reader how to apply the gaps in the theory to trading, and also to life in general. Secondly, Taleb is interested in how life should be led, and makes the connexion between this ancient but ever-important question and the problems in statistics. He mentions Hume and Kant, I can't remember if he mentions Aristotle, but he does not mention Epictetus - however, in respect of how we should live, Taleb's book is in certain senses a follow-up to some of these authors, though as Taleb would be the first to assert, not in any way pretending to be on their level.

Taleb has a good writing style. In this sort of subject it is very easy to drop names and quote quotes, but Taleb keeps such academic strutting to a minimum and writes entertainingly. I found it a very good read.


Better to be lucky than smart   November 20, 2001
Martin Pomp (New York, NY United States)
This is an extremely insightful and entertaining book. And wise. My mother always told me it was far better to be lucky than smart--as a matter of fact, whenever I got good grades, she'd always say, Lots of luck! And good traders make money, period. A bit arrogant, but so is harsh love, this book being one of the intellectual variety. Nassim Taleb will always inform, expose, ridicule, and above all, enlighten. This is a must read for thoughtful traders and trading room managers--and their wives.


Fooled   November 20, 2001
JOAN M KIND (Thornton, CO USA)
18 out of 28 found this review helpful

If you want to know how clever, intelligent and generally great the author is, buy this book. If you want to know about "The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life", forget it. There is not much here except lots about Mr. Taleb. The book is a huge disappointment. But, as in many other things in life, one takes a chance when one buys a book.


Original and Genius   November 18, 2001
4 out of 9 found this review helpful

The book is original and the writing style is genius. I strongly recommend this book to anyone interested in the randomness of life (traders, medical doctors, your grandmother). However I am not sure if it was serendipity rather than genius that lead Nassim to come to this book. Only a second volume will prove his real genius. I am looking forward to it.

The only minus with the book itself is the complete lack of option formulas. But on the other hand this is good as even a fool can get the brilliant points from this book. So I predict the book in no time will reach 100 thousand copies sold.

Espen G. Haug
(The Option formula Collector)