Customer Reviews:
Showing reviews 26-30 of 432
 The odds are you'll love it March 16, 2009
Jeffrey Levin (Maumee, OH)
0 out of 2 found this review helpful
Taleb puts down in words what I had suspected for decades. His insight and enjoyable way of understanding the fickle finger of fate is overwhelmingly understandable. Being written in 2004, it is prophetic in its musings and unsettling in what it portends.
Very Approachable Book on Randomness March 16, 2009
Jon Thomas
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
I've read this book twice. The first time was perhaps around 5 years ago. I liked it and agreed with his basic premise that humans are not highly rational and that markets can be very volatile and unpredictable. Because of the current financial meltdown and because I saw the author participate in a group discussion on CNN concerning the meltdown, I decided to see if I still had a positive opinion of the book after a reread.
I really don't think Mr. Taleb was as egotistical as some of the other reviewers claim. He has classical literary interests and enjoys working them into the narrative. My reaction to many of the stockbroker and bond trader types that I've observed in the media over the years is that they have a rather unflattering image. As a group, they appear to be a loud, unreflective, aggressive, and egotistical group. I think a lot of the critics are angry that he brought into question what many of them do for a living: perpetual bullish cheerleading a gullible public into purchasing overvalued and inflated securities.
He also questions the improper application of certain mathematical tools for economic analysis. If I understand him correctly, this means the use of statistics for economic problems whereby you assume that you have normalized distributions resulting from your sampling of data. He says to the contrary, you cannot truly normalize your sampling results and expected outcomes because you are dealing with highly volatile systems when analyzing markets. Consequently, you must take into account the highly unexpected and highly dangerous events, the "Black Swans". Another economics book reviewer on Amazon, a Mr. Brady, likes to make the comment that economics is really dealing with Cauchy distributions--not normal or Gaussian distributions. Economic forecasting, consequently, is extremely difficult because of this volatility, irrational individual and mass behavior, etc.
Mr. Taleb appears to dismiss much of the mathematical modeling so characteristic of modern neo-classical economics. In fact, in his recent interview in the Washington Post, he referred to modern economics as a "b******t science"! Actually, my own view is that it really is a science. But when it is most properly practiced, it is science in the vein of psychology, sociology, and anthropology. It definitely ain't physics or rocket science. One economist, Robert Nelson, has made the comment that modern day economics suffers from "physics envy." Modern day economics should make fewer claims to concrete knowledge, but should rather follow the path of the humble skeptic, trying piece together a coherent and accurate understanding of economic systems and institutions with appropriately chosen tools--mainly of the narrative variety, but with statistical and mathematical tools as well. And where appropriate....
So, I can see why the author has made more than a few enemies and critics amongst his reviewers. However, I think his fundamental take on markets and our present economic problems appear to be very accurate. Markets--like men--are largely irrational, emotional, and volatile. Investors and would be investors would be very well advised to keep those fundamental facts well in mind. Mr. Taleb appears to be doing his best to educate them to those basic facts. From my point of view, he is providing a laudable public service.
 Good book February 10, 2009
John Tipton
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
I think anyone who is serious about the markets would at least give this book a fair look. It's hard to argue against some of the points that Taleb brings up. That being said, it is understandable why some people disagree with his views. Regardless, this book is worth a read.
 Useful information, but getting past the author can be a challenge February 7, 2009
Jason Stokes (St. Louis)
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
Taleb is a brilliant guy, and a good author, no doubt about that. However, he lost me pretty quickly due to trying to jam his oversized ego into this book. It's been a long time since I've encountered someone as holier-than-thou than Mr. Taleb. I wonder if he's similar in person. Thankfully, he says in the book that he won't read reviews, so I don't have to worry about offending him.
If the reader can get past his ego, this is an excellent book. He goes through many discourses on how humans convince themselves that they are above randomness, put too much value on history, and simply don't *think* they way they should. As a student of statistics, I appreciate his straightforward examples of the effects of randomness, and his attempts to get others to realize that life, as we see it, is not always so simple.
An interesting perspective on randomness January 29, 2009
Alex Ferrugia
3 out of 3 found this review helpful
Overall I give this book five stars despite what I might view as a few shortcomings because I found it to offer a unique way of looking at randomness and risk. I thought it was even more interesting to read this book ex post the recent "Subprime meltdown".
Pros:
- Contains a wide bredth of thought-provoking ideas.
- Provides a unique perspective on how to look at the role of randomness/risk, specifically but not limited to the area of finance.
Cons:
- At times it felt like the writing was just a flagrant assertion of Taleb's intellectual depth in areas such as mythology, philosophy, and a few other subjects he appears to be well read in. However, I suppose most people tend to discuss ideas in terms of relating them to what they already know.
- I would have found it interesting if Taleb went further into the mechanics of his options trades--ie. describe the actual execution. Rather he just tells you "I always take positions in which I lose almost nothing under normal circumstances, but make an enormous profit when a rare event occurs". That's great; give me more detail on how that works.
- I wouldn't go so far as to say that the book was repetitive, but I would say that I think some of the ideas could have been better consolidated.
Showing reviews 26-30 of 432
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