Customer Reviews:
Showing reviews 11-15 of 432
 enough good points to fill a pamphlet June 22, 2009
Ryan (Tulsa, OK United States)
3 out of 8 found this review helpful
You can pretty much glean the entire contents of this book from its back cover. The rest is just bitter whining and vitriol from a Wall Street loser.
Lots of people journal their rants for stress relief. This guy turned his into a book. Don't waste your time.
 Less readable than Black Swan June 14, 2009
CA Hofmeyr (Cape Town, South Africa)
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
I found this book to be less readable than The Black Swan, but no less thought-provoking.
I don't take his views on the role of luck in business too seriously. He is making sweeping generalizations for the sake of getting his point across, and who can disagree with him when it comes to the "winner take all" effect? "chance events coupled with positive feedback rather than technological superiority will determine economic superiority--not some abstrusely defined edge in a given area of expertise."
Reducing the book to this single concept and taking issue with it is also unfair. It is a collection of fairly diverse, highly interesting musings, written for fun (as Taleb makes it clear in the Preface).
The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives (Vintage) June 14, 2009
Joseph Hamel (Marquette, MI)
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
Awesome, if interested, one need to read this book before reading Taleb's The Black Swan.
JRH
Immensely Entertaining, and Wisely Instructive Too June 12, 2009
Irfan A. Alvi (Towson, MD USA)
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
Taleb is one of a kind and has ascended to becoming one of my very favorite thinker-writers. This is partly because I've myself been interested in this subject matter (uncertainty, probability, risk, judgement, decision making, etc.) for more than two decades, but also because Taleb makes original and valuable contributions to the subject, and does it with an immensely entertaining writing style.
The book is too wide ranging to summarize its content in a review, but perhaps the main lesson is that we humans are inherently prone to being irrational in various ways (usually without realizing it), particularly when it comes to adequately judging risks (and opportunities) and thereby making appropriate decisions in the face of uncertainty. We're especially prone to underestimating how often outliers ("black swans") can occur and how severe their consequences can be ("blowing up" in the case of traders). A corollary is that we often underestimate the role of luck (good and bad) in shaping outcomes, and instead overestimate the role of our decisions. Though we can't eliminate our tendency toward irrationality, we can at least be aware of it, and thereby deploy some "tricks" to help control it or compensate for it.
My thoughts on this book largely echo my review of Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, and both books are similar in content and style, though The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is perhaps a bit more flamboyant (in a good way). To be more specific:
- Taleb is confident and may sometimes seem condescending, but his erudition is undeniable, and a strong case can be made for his iconoclastic brilliance as well. In a book like this, perhaps the usual modesty and humility don't make sense.
- He's dismissive of those he disagrees with (even Nobel prize winners), and could be accused of oversimplifying their positions, but his criticisms actually seem to have a lot of validity, and recent financial events seem to have significantly (and unfortunately) vindicated him.
- He often circles around his points, but his refusal to get right to the point pushes you to think more deeply about the implications of his ideas, rather than just quickly saying "yes, that's obvious, so what?"
- His frequent digressions make it harder for the reader to follow the thread of his narrative, but the digressions are fun and many are quite insightful. For an open-minded person with an intellectual inclination, this can be a very gripping book.
- I do think the more technical discussions should have been more clear and precise. I guess Taleb tried to "dumb down" the book to reach a broad audience.
- Many of the ideas in the book aren't original to Taleb, but the way he's woven them together and presented them with flourish certainly is, resulting in the ideas having lasting impact on the reader.
- His suggestions on investing aren't very specific, but this is a book about being fooled by randomness in general, not investing in particular. And Taleb's general advice to arrange safeguards against financial disaster, and also get exposure to potentially huge opportunities, certainly seems sensible.
As with The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, the bottom line is that this book is truly unique in its ability to intellectually entertain while conveying some deep insight and wisdom. Few people in the world have the right intersection of ingredients to produce a book like this, so we should cherish the fact that the book exists. Even if you don't fully agree with him, Taleb is worth engaging with. For readers who like this book and also have a strong interest in science, I also suggest Chance and Chaos by David Ruelle.
Very highly recommended. In fact, ignore this book at your peril.
Its All Chance May 31, 2009
Ronin
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
This great book deals with the role of chance, luck and probability in life. We all grow up being taught that hard work equals success. Taleb shatters this myth, which many people will find unsettling.
We have all seen many people who work physically hard jobs, be they personal relations or someone you see in passing. How many of these people slave their life away for no pay? On the flip side, how many people have we known or come across making millions for some work done on a phone or computer? How many people are in a good field working really hard that never get rich?
Military history is loaded with examples of generals who trust in Fortune. It is the ultimate deciding factor and while this is hard for some to swallow, Taleb presents an outstanding argument demonstrating that luck is the underlying factor behind success.
My late father had 2-years of modest (for him) income followed by a 3-year stretch where he brokered a series of deals that paid over $10 million. He became very overconfident in his superior abilities, and I started to point out the role of luck in his success. He dismissed my argument and gave me the hard work speech. He was wrong. When all the right forces converge you are lucky, and only then does success arrive. Fooled by Randomness is a detailed investigation into the role of luck in life and work. I highly recommend it, especially if this principle is contrary to your current views.
Showing reviews 11-15 of 432
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