Customer Reviews:
Showing reviews 86-88 of 88
 Fascinating Read September 1, 2007
William Yarberry (kingwood, tx United States)
14 out of 23 found this review helpful
Ian Ayres writes well and writes broadly. Covering everything from evidence based medicine to optimal means of customer retention, he shows how today's massive databases, combined with easy availability, enables better decision making. He also notes that above a certain volume of data, human ability to see trends and notice subtle trends becomes limited. Not so for Super crunching algorithms and statistics.
Between this book and Taleb's "Black Swan" I'm actually excited about the ablility of applied mathematics, combined with massive data and fast computers, to change the way people live.
Keep on writing Dr. Ayres -- you are good at it!
Bill Yarberry, Houston, Texas
 The horse versus the locomotive September 1, 2007
The Ginger Man
44 out of 53 found this review helpful
Ayres argues that decisions in business and government should be made through the creative utilization of data analysis rather than as the result of anecdotal observation. While this may seem to be almost a truism, Ayres begins by demonstrating how older enterprises like the wine industry and professional baseball both rely more on feeling and experience than on the quantitative method. Both also rejected initial efforts to move towards a more data centric model.
The difference in the two approaches is not just a matter of managerial preference according to the author: "We are in a historic moment of horse vs. locomotive competition where intuitive and experiential expertise is losing out time and time again to number crunching." Examples include hedge fund experts who create value by finding empirical correlations between unrelated factors and the consumer lending business where front line loan officer judgement has been replaced by more reliable centralized formulas.
I have long worked in the telecommunications business in which a surprising number of important decisions such as constructing channel line ups or marketing products is based to a large degree on experience or feeling. As we have moved to a more data-based model, we continue to struggle to achieve the balance Ayres describes as comfort with both numbers and ideas.
Ayres discusses some of the institutional and ideological barriers to such a transition. The shift to Direct Instruction in primary schools, for example, pits "the brute force of numbers" against the professional experience of teachers and the philosophical inclinations of education professionals. In the commercial lending business, super crunching (defined simply enough as "statistical analysis that impacts real-world decisions") has effectively shifted discretion from front line employees to centralized experts, has deflated salaries and has created the potential to export jobs overseas.
Overall, this is a useful discussion of the challenge of blending science and art in management. It brings a wide range of examples into play and achieves balance in its conclusions. Aside from the pure reading experience, I left with some definite plans to explore the use of randomized trials in my business in place of focus groups and simple historical analysis.
Outstanding Information and Very Interesting! August 30, 2007
Loyd E. Eskildson (Phoenix, AZ.)
71 out of 85 found this review helpful
"Super Crunchers" provides a very readable summary of what can be done to improve performance using the incredible volumes of data accumulated in business, government, health care, and education. Why now? One reason is that the massive amounts of data now available make randomization (essential to valid conclusions) much more achievable than in the past; the other is the low and continually falling costs of computers and storage media.
The bulk of Ayres' work consists of examples (names both companies and the software involved) within each of the sectors previously mentioned. Capital One has been running randomized tests since at least 1995 - tests include page layout, and type and size of offers. Google uses data analysis to fuel its web accelerator (uses your past browsing history to predict pages to be called up next), Wal-Mart's analysis of responses to various employment questions is used to rank potential employees, and Continental Airlines follows up on its own data to design follow-up programs for complaining fliers. Capital One's approach has also been used to evaluate various charity donation-matching programs, and could also be used to evaluate potential billboard and magazine ads. (Similarly, TiVo is now being used to evaluate various TV ads, using the same approach and measuring the relative frequency with which various ads are fast-forwarded through.)
"Offermatica" software not only automates randomization (format, type of offer) for a number of firms, it also analyzes the responses in real time, dramatically cutting the cost of experiments. Thus, no more waiting for hyper-controlled experiments in universities and laboratories that conclude, ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL (that never happens), eg. red is preferred to blue.
Randomized tests are also increasingly being used to evaluate various government programs, finding eg. that additional job location assistance more than paid for itself for those receiving unemployment benefits, guiding HeadStart programs to target those most likely to benefit.
"Super Crunchers'" health care examples were the most impressive. Don Berwick's "100,000 lives" campaign saved 122,342 lives in an 18 month period through persuading about 3,000 hospitals representing 75% of all beds to focus on six areas of improvement identified through data analyses. These included antiseptic placement of central line catheters in ICUs, elevating heads and washing the mouths of those on respirators, adoption of the latest heart attack treatments, and rapid response teams to patent beds.
Bottom Line: "Super Crunchers" is an exciting vision of what is already possible!
Showing reviews 86-88 of 88
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