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|  | Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: Wiley
List Price: $45.00
Buy New: $22.50
as of 11/22/2009 06:21 CST details
You Save: $22.50 (50%)
New (35) Used (13) from $22.50
Seller: strandbookstore
Rating:  32 reviews
Sales Rank: 35250
Languages: English (Original Language), English (Unknown), English (Published)
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 304
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.2
Dimensions (in): 9.1 x 5.9 x 1
ISBN: 0470387955
Dewey Decimal Number: 658.155
EAN: 9780470387955
ASIN: 0470387955
Publication Date: April 27, 2009
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
Condition: Brand New. 100% money back guarantee. All books shipped from Strand Bookstore, New York City, USA.
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| Customer Reviews:
Showing reviews 11-15 of 32
 I wish I would have read this when it was first released August 21, 2009
Cryophysics (Washington DC)
5 out of 5 found this review helpful
The month this book was released, my firm spent a lot of money on some new high-risk projects. On the four biggest projects (totalling over 100 million dollars), a "formal" risk analysis was performed by risk analysis "experts" and the leadership felt very confident when it was all done. The risk was considered acceptable and all four projects were given he go ahead.
Fast forward to today: two of the projects are unmitigated disasters already and the other two are so far behind the firm is considering cancelling them before the end of the year. We've already spent over a third of the budgeted amount and there is a looming feeling that we will have literally nothing to show for it.
But the "formal" method we used was already proven to be completely ineffective by the author of this book. None of th risks that were identified were even close to the sources of difficulty on any of the projects. We understated risks, excluded major risks, used the wrong ways to add up risks and ignored risk optimization methods. Hubbard explains different methods that might have actually taken no more time than what we spent on this hocus-pocus weighted scoring method and the methods he describes already have mountains of evidence of working in both controlled experiments and real world environments.
I would recommend not wasting another dollar on what some vendor calls a "formal, structured risk management method" until you read Hubbard's excellent book.
Great Book August 1, 2009
William A. Waits (FL, USA)
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
It is an excellent source for Risk Management-
T Dhital-Oracle Certified Professional (OCP, Ph. D.
Absolutely the best RM book for practitioners and academics alike. July 19, 2009
Bill Gossett (Chicago)
4 out of 6 found this review helpful
How does anyone manage to practice in the world of real problems while being keenly well versed in the theory? I don't know, but Hubbard pulls it off. This book only gets just enough into the "theory" so that the reader understands the problems behind the self-delusions and, often, outright frauds in risk management. But where it does dive into the detail it makes a perfectly constructed case that most RM just doesn't work as advertised.
I like Hubbard's sweeping recommendations at the end of the book including the ambitious-sounding "Global Probability Model". The GPM is a recommendation for collaborating on models in almost a wikipedia-like fashion so that the same information silos that caused the banking crisis don't continue in the future.
I see a lot of alternative books on RM but they either tend to focus on one narrow discipline (like security, investing, or worker safety) or tend to be complete fluff. Hubbard addresses the problems of RM from the point of view of all of these fields and simultaneously debunks the fluff mongers that seem to rule so much of RM.
Well done.
It is high time this was said July 19, 2009
D. Vaslinkov (Princeton, NJ)
4 out of 6 found this review helpful
Hubbard is the rare breed that has a deep understanding of even the most academic materials and yet can effectively explain it to a wide audience. In this book he debunks most of the highly suspect methods my
organization has been using and he shows us what to replace it with. The author makes his case with rock solid and well-sourced research that proves his point...the most popular methods used in risk management (and decision analysis in general) do not improve decisions. They can actually make the worse!
Very highly recommended.
"The Failure of Risk Management" - A Success! July 3, 2009
Cordwainer Jones (Chicago IL)
4 out of 7 found this review helpful
This is the first, and to date the only, study of risk management that intelligently applies statistics and other mathematical methods in a testable fashion. Some of what is contained in this book is counter intuitive; this is because our intuition is often wrong. Doug Hubbard has succeeded in moving risk management away from fuzzy guesswork (and hope) into the realm of testable, predictive science. Read it and learn.
Showing reviews 11-15 of 32
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