|  | Author: Leonard Mlodinow
Publisher: Vintage
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Rating:  119 reviews
Sales Rank: 2093
Languages: English (Original Language), English (Unknown), English (Published)
Media: Paperback
Edition: Reprint
Pages: 272
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.6
Dimensions (in): 8 x 5.1 x 0.9
ISBN: 0307275175
Dewey Decimal Number: 519.2
EAN: 9780307275172
ASIN: 0307275175
Publication Date: May 5, 2009
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Showing reviews 21-25 of 119
A very enjoyable book July 22, 2009
D. Geifman (Israel)
3 out of 3 found this review helpful
The book provides an excellent insight into the basic concepts of probability and statistics. Mlodinov manages to convey difficult notions in a readable manner by putting them in their historical context and using anecdotes and examples. All this is done without the need to resort to even one mathematical expression. As someone that is remotely acquainting with these topics, I enjoyed the read and the newly acquire deeper intuitive understanding of the subject.
I did not agree however with Mlodinov's main thesis that flows throughout the book, that success and failure is random and is not related to personal talent or skill. I agree that in many cases there are determinants other than talent or skill that effect performance outcome. There are talented people that fail, and we can find mediocre people that succeed. However attributing this to a completely random process is pushing it too far. If this is the case, let's get rid of all leaders, managers, coaches etc. and let teams and organizations self-operate. That would save a lot of money. Let's get rid of all writers, musicians and artists and let the computer produce art.
But having said this, a very enjoyable book.
 randomness rules July 13, 2009
Elisa Robyn (Colorado)
4 out of 4 found this review helpful
I love this book. A walk through the world of statistical randomness without an equation in sight.There is good talk about numbers and equations without using them. The human brain tries to make meaning of any and all events, even when those events are random.
When I think about all the leadership decisions that are made, policies that are written, task forces that are started and money spent to solve a problem based on trends, this book became more important. I had to stop and ask myself what makes something a trend versus a random blip? Is the change I am seeing worth investing time and energy into? How accurate are predictions about careers for the future? On the other hand, ups and downs in the economy are to expected and not feared.
I would suggest that you read this book with Outliers to start to make sense of how trends happen. Random events can be the source of a later trend. Insightful, fun, and informative. A great read for anyone in a decision making role.
Elisa Robyn, author of Pirate Wisdom
Math theory that's not only interesting, but profoundly applicable July 4, 2009
Tom Chatt (Los Angeles, CA USA)
2 out of 2 found this review helpful
CalTech physicist Leonard Mlodinow, in his book "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives", offers a fascinating lesson on the development of our understanding of probability and randomness, and how randomness is widely misunderstood and underestimated even today. The core chapters of the book present a sequence of concepts in probability theory, but rather than just present dry theory, Mlodinow takes the much more interesting approach of presenting the concepts by way of the history of their development, making it not only the story of the development of ideas, but of the colorful characters who contributed to them. Along the way, we meet a Renaissance doctor who made more money at games of chance than treating the sick, a Swiss dynasty and full-scale soap opera of mathematicians, and a mathematician who experienced a religious conversion and made a probabilistic argument for the existence of God. He does a good job of carefully explaining the concepts with good examples. Many of the examples are surprisingly counter-intuitive, such as the "Monty Hall problem", supporting the point that our brains tend to be wired counter to correct probabilistic reasoning. The book begins with a discussion about how much we may underestimate and underrecognize the role of randomness in our lives, and at the end returns to the theme of how much we misattribute success or failure to our own efforts while neglecting the role of chance. He touches on a wide variety of applications, from baseball (home run records and world series outcomes) to movie industry executive performance and mutual fund management success, illuminating how much of such outcomes are random. And he discusses some surprising psychological experiments that expose our innate tendency to find patterns in random "streaks" and to attribute intentional control over things we don't actually control (even when we know better). Not only does Mlodinow succeed in making mathematical theory and history quite fascinating, but he demonstrates the applicability of randomness in our lives in ways that will make you ponder.
Easy to understand July 2, 2009
Michael Smith (Park Forest Illinois, USA)
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
Probability is a subject with which I struggle. This was an easy read for me.
Brilliantly clear June 29, 2009
Jonathan Zasloff
3 out of 3 found this review helpful
Lots of other people have said lots of other things about this book, and for the most part, I agree. If you know a good bit about statistics, then this book is not for you. Moreover, a number of excellent books have appeared over the last couple of years that popularize and explain the Twersky/Kahneman "heuristics and biases" approach to life, so on that side, this book is not truly necessary.
But what an explanation of statistics it is! I've read a lot of introductory statistics material over the years (which of course says a good bit about my ability to understand statistics -- or lack thereof). I have NEVER read a book that explains the concepts so well. He explains the "normal curve," and then uses it to explain the underlying intuition behind Bayesian reasoning, the chi-squared test, and significance testing, just to name three. If that was so easy to do, then someone would have done it already. They haven't. Note that what I am talking about is the intuitive notion behind the tests. Lots of books (mostly textbooks) will explain the tests; what they won't do is give you a good intuitive sense of what these tests are doing, and how they work.
Mlodinow also communicates with exceptional clarity about the nature of statistical fallacies. For example, Alan Dershowitz argued that admitting evidence of OJ Simpson's abuse of his wife was irrelevant because only a minuscule number of women who are abused are also murdered by their husband. Using the Bayesian test, Mlodinow shows that the true question is: what percentage of women who were abused by their husband and were murdered were actually murdered by someone else?
Mlodinow also effectively sets forth the issues of how human beings see order in randomness and randomness where there is order. Of these, by far the more interesting heuristically is the former, and skillfully uses examples (such as random number series) to show how it happens. I agree that he does not as effective a job as others do in surveying all of the heuristics and biases. I think that Predictable Irrational (Dan Ariely), Nudge (Sunstein and Thaler), and Sway (Ori Branfman) are somewhat better than that. But all of these books are short and well-written: quite literally, you can read them all (or listen to them unabridged, as I did), and it will help the concepts stick in your head.
But one book that this is clearly superior to is The Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb. Taleb sticks with the "people see order when it's random" problem, but more than anything else, The Black Swan focuses on TALEB, not the problem. Taleb does discuss the problem of not knowing when you have a Gaussian distribution, but his account of the alternative "Mandelbrotian" way of thinking is just opaque (perhaps an occupational hazard, but then he shouldn't do it). I recommend Black Swan as well, but if you have to choose, Drunkard's Walk is better.
If you are a specialist in the field, then this book isn't for you. But if you really are a specialist, then the popular books aren't generally for you, either. Read this book if you want to get a good intuitive understanding of what is going on. You can't do better.
Showing reviews 21-25 of 119
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