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Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition |  | Author: Michael J. Mauboussin
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press
List Price: $29.95
Buy New: $19.65
as of 11/21/2009 06:44 CST details
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New (16) Used (3) from $19.65
Seller: sbd-
Rating:  11 reviews
Sales Rank: 643
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 204
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1
Dimensions (in): 9.3 x 6 x 1
ISBN: 1422176754
Dewey Decimal Number: 658.403
EAN: 9781422176757
ASIN: 1422176754
Publication Date: October 12, 2009
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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Product Description
Leaders in all fields-business, medicine, law, government-make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders, their organizations, and the people they serve.
Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In Think Twice, Michael Mauboussin shows you how to recognize-and avoid-common mental missteps, including:
-Misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages
-Aggregating micro-level behavior to predict macro-level behavior
-Not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision
-Relying too much on experts
Sharing vivid stories from business and beyond, Mauboussin offers powerful rules for avoiding each error. And he explains how to know when it's time to think twice-to question your reasoning and adopt decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive.
Master the art of thinking twice, and you'll start spotting dangerous mental errors-in your own decisions and in those of others. Equipped with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.
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| Customer Reviews:
Showing reviews 1-5 of 11
 Good, But Limited Range and Value November 18, 2009
Searching the Stars (MD United States)
2 out of 7 found this review helpful
I was prompted, in part, to read this book because there were so many five-star reviews. And while this is a well-written and informative book, it is somewhat anemic. Its 191 pages contain text on only 143 pages, the rest being notes, bibilography and index. Most chapters have a multi-page review section with a checklist that repeats much of what was already covered. There are also fairly large margins, creating a very, very brief book. There's just not a lot here.
Worse, I was familiar with most of what did manage to find its way to the page. For instance, p 66ff contains a discussion of psychological experiments in which people are found to be willing to deliver putative electric shocks to other people at the instruction of a researcher. While there is a good discussion of these well-known experiments, I'm not sure I really learned much in this chapter. On the other hand, there are interesting accounts of how thinking can go awry in the book as a whole.
In conclusion, while the book does have some interesting insights, it is only 8 very short chapters. I'm not finding the material something I will use. Thus, 3 stars.
 Think Twice: Perfect Counter November 18, 2009
K. Housman (Frisco, CO)
4 out of 4 found this review helpful
This book WILL change how you think.
The primary theme of the book is that in certain situations our intuition fails us. Mauboussin pinpoints eight key areas where our gut response to an issue tends to take us down the wrong path. Once you are able to recognize these situations, you are better equipped to catch yourself and refrain from making suboptimal decisions. Now, Mauboussin acknowledges, correctly, that most of the time our gut response will be correct -- that we're alive speaks to the point. Yet, there are certain areas where many people come up short -- I know I'm certainly guilty. Just to name a few, Think Twice addresses: the undue reliance on the "inside view" versus the "outside view"; the improper account of the role of luck in many outcomes; and a faulty approach to understanding complex systems.
The chapter on the "inside" versus the "outside" view kicks the book off in style with a very engaging story about Big Brown, the wildly overhyped horse that made a bid for horseracing's Triple Crown in '08. The point of the chapter is that in making a decision, people often give far more weight to their unique set of information as opposed to viewing the problem as just another instance in a broader reference class. The skill versus luck chapter really struck me, as the (again) engaging examples all led to the type of counterintuitive conclusions that really define this book. And then my favorite chapter -- how we misunderstand and thus mismanage complex systems -- contains a great recount of the efforts by the US National Park Service to revive Yellowstone's game population over a century ago. Suffice it to say they had as much success as the US government did in 2008 when it tried to manage the problems in our financial markets. Nevertheless, this is just a small taste of the numerous rich ideas and lessons contained in this book.
TWICE!!! November 2, 2009
MADC (America Latina)
3 out of 3 found this review helpful
Yes...And I am going to read it twice, because it is one of those books that really helps you.
Making decisions is very hard in all aspects of life...and this book brings down to earth and useful info
about the mistakes we make every day...
I really think that the time you spend reading this book is very WELL spent...
Get it ..and read it twice..
Don't THINK TWICE about buying this book !!! October 29, 2009
Franco Arda (London UK)
4 out of 4 found this review helpful
I regard decision making as a fundamental skill in life. It's always been a mystherie to me why books on decision making do not attract a large audience. As the author writes: There's a funny paradox with decision making. Almost everyone realizes how important it is, yet very few people practice (let alone read about it).
THINK TWICE is a fantastic book for people interested in decision making. In particular, why we often fail and how we can improve our skills. Mauboussin offers deep insights into the topic. It's not a dummies book. Readers should expect academic rigor in all of Mauboussin's books. The reader finds a framework for thinking twice without a detailed structure. In particular the last chapter, Time to Think Twice", the author offers some guidance in how we can improve our decision making skills immediately.
In my opinion, there used to be only one outstanding book on decision making: ,Smart Choices`. For practical purposes in decision making, like how to use decision trees, it's still the best book in the market. But ,Think Twice` offers a lot more on the subject. In particular why we make mistakes regarding decisions. Now we got two brilliant books on the subject.
Deep Survival for Investors October 20, 2009
Steve Waite (Shelton, CT USA)
7 out of 7 found this review helpful
It is a curious thing that Nobel Prize winning economists specializing in finance can start up an investment management company, run it successfully for several years, and then blow up. In fact, in my 25 years on Wall Street, I've learned that an academic grounding in modern portfolio theory is not a ticket to financial nirvana, as many would believe. Rather, it is often the way to financial ruin. When I began managing money professionally, after years of academic trainings, I realized that the great Jedi master Yoda was right: I had to unlearn what I had learned to be successful as an investment manager. In the process of unlearning, I had to learn to think twice and harness the power of counter intuition, which is the subject of Michael Mauboussin's perceptive book.
Think Twice is all about decision making. It goes without saying that nobody's decision making is perfect. We can all improve our ability to make better decisions. And therein lay the value of this book. Mauboussin takes readers through numerous real life stories - from betting on Big Brown to win, to the unexpected wobble in the newly constructed Millennium Bridge - where faulty decisions led to unfortunate consequences. Analyzing these situations in a colorful and easy to digest manner, he provides fresh insights based on psychology and complexity theory to tell us how to avoid bad decisions and improve future outcomes. As Aldous Huxley once observed, experience is not what happens to you; it is what you do with what happens to you.
Oh, if only I were armed with the power of counter intuition when I first started out on Wall Street. I could have saved myself many sleepless nights and a lot of money along the way. If you are an investor, I urge you to pick up a copy of Think Twice. It is deep survival for investors. If you are not investor but desire to improve your decision making ability, I highly encourage you to read this book. If you take to heart what Mauboussin says in his book you will undoubtedly learn to make better decisions.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 11
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