Conned Again, Watson!: Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability |  | Author: Colin Bruce
Creator: Claire Palmer
Publisher: Perseus Publishing
List Price: $24.00
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Seller: snowlionbooks
Rating:  13 reviews
Sales Rank: 1438283
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 290
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1
Dimensions (in): 8.5 x 5.5 x 1.3
ISBN: 0738203459
Dewey Decimal Number: 813.54
EAN: 9780738203454
ASIN: 0738203459
Publication Date: December 2000
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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| • | Paperback - Conned Again Watson: Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math and Probability | | • | Kindle Edition - Conned Again, Watson: Cautionary Tales Of Logic, Math, And Probability | | • | Paperback - Conned Again, Watson!: Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability | | • | Paperback - Conned Again, Watson! Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability |
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| Editorial Reviews:
Amazon.com Review
Some people who think they hate math are lucky to learn that they actually just can't abide its often dry, abstract presentation. Physicist Colin Bruce turns math teaching on its head by using conflict, drama, and familiar characters to bring probability and game theory to vivid life in Conned Again, Watson! Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability. Using short stories crafted in the style of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, he lets Sherlock Holmes guide Watson and his clients through elementary mathematical reasoning. This kind of thinking is growing more and more important as poll numbers, economic indicators, and scientific data find their way into the mainstream, and Bruce's gambit pays off handsomely for the reader. Delving into such arcana as normal distribution, Bayesian logic, and risk taking, the stories never dry up, even when presenting tables or graphs. Holmes's quick wit, Watson's patience, and their various friends' and clients' dubious decisions unite both to entertain and to illuminate tough but important problems. Even the cleverest numerophile will probably still find a nugget or two of hidden knowledge in the book, or at least a few new ways to explain statistical concepts to friends and students. The rest of us can relax, enjoy the tales, and come away a little bit tougher to con. --Rob Lightner
Product Description
A thrilling way to learn about probability, statistics, and math-by watching Sherlock Holmes help victims exploited by evil con men. "I wish I understood these matters, of chance and luck!" I said as we walked. "But to a dunce like myself, it all seems hopelessly paradoxical." Holmes smiled as he tucked the Marquis's winnings carefully into his waistcoat pocket. "You will indeed need to master the reasoning, Watson, to prosper in the new century," he said. "I could name you a dozen fallacies of probability and logic, where the outcome runs quite contrary to intuition. They form the basis of the cleverest cons and crimes and capers a detective could hope to find. In fact, I have a hunch that we will soon meet some illuminating cases." Herein are cautionary tales of greedy gamblers, reckless businessmen, and honest people misled by their common sense. From "The Unpleasantness at the Munchausen Club" to "Murder at Checkers," there has never been a more exciting way to learn about probability, statistics, game theory, and when to take a calculated risk.
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| Customer Reviews:
Showing reviews 1-5 of 13
Good infotainment on probability, logic and related fields August 7, 2009
Ilkka Karanta (Espoo, Finland)
The book consists of 12 detective cases, solved by Sherlock Holmes, his brother Mycroft and Dr. Watson. The stories happen in 1900, but the historical setting shouldn't be taken too seriously because the author takes liberties with it (as he explains in the afterword). The cases are solved by using mathematical and logical reasoning in an informal way. Most of the cases involve some probabilistic concept or result. The potpourri of topics is well-chosen: all either carry some important practical lessons or are intellectually interesting; best cases have both.
It is true, as a reviewer noted, that most of the stories are predictable if you know the mathematics. That didn't prevent me from enjoying the text: I find the concepts illustrated quite fascinating, and the pleasure was in seeing how they were illustrated. It is also true, as another reviewer noted, that some results are repeated, with different applications. I found this theme-and-variations treatment good because one gets a fuller view of the implications and applications of the particular result. Besides, if one finds this repetition tedious, all one has to do is to read more cursorily or skip some paragraphs.
A reviewer pointed some errors in the book. It seems though that an error in chapter 4, The Case of the Ancient Mariner, has not been reported so far. To simplify matters, I'll talk only about the coin-tossing example presented. A coin is tossed 100 times. The coin produces 13 more tails than heads. From this, Watson and Holmes draw the conclusion that 63 tails have been thrown in the 100 coin tosses. This isn't so. It is easy to see - for parity reasons - that it isn't even possible to throw 13 more tails than heads in 100 coin tosses; but when the number of coin tosses is 99, the number of tails must be 56, and the number of heads must be 43. A reader familiar with highschool algebra can check this by solving the pair of equations y=x+13 and x+y=99 (or x+y=100 in the original formulation); here y is the number of tails, and x is the number of heads. Indeed, if the number of tails would be 63 (and thus, by implication, the number of heads 37), there would be 63-37=26 more tails than heads. This error is regrettable because it affects the rest of chapter 4.
I read most of the book on a holiday trip, and can testify that it is good, light and informal reading for a mathematically oriented reader. Due to its level of treatment, the book should also be accessible also to readers with little mathematical knowledge.
Enjoyable Holmesian Read October 7, 2008
Dennis R. Mitton (pacific nw, usa)
I `m suspicious of any novel purporting to be written in the `spirit of Sherlock Holmes' but Colin Bruce truly pulls one off here with his book "Conned Again Watson!" I picked it up initially thinking that a blend of Holmes and math would make for a good read but ended up reading it simply as a Holmes story. The book is obviously written for folks with an eye for math, logic, and stats and for those readers who have studies these subjects the math will be a bit lean but I'm not sure how you can weave complex math into a readable novel. I do like the concept, though, and it follows largely along the same lines of "Godel, Escher, and Bach."
I would certainly recommend the book to Holmes fans and probably not for math fans looking to learn anything new. For an easy and fun read , though, I think Bruce has succeeded.
Sherlock Holmes stories on logic, maths & probability March 12, 2008
Franco Arda (London UK)
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
Twelve short Sherlock Holmes stories challanging logic, probability, statistic, game theory, more or less relevant to daily life. The authors approach of telling the story seen through Holmes and Watson is brilliant (incl. the dialogue between the two). Some stories are a bit simple and boring while others were quite amazing. Example Chapter 7 illustrates the error of assuming that a well-defined ordering retlation must also define a unique hierarchy. In higher mathematics it is quite possible to have x greater than y, y greater than z, and yet z greater than x! Last but not least, the afterword is extremely useful where the author sheds more light on each chapter.
 probability and statistics taught through the eyes of a detective January 24, 2008
Michael R. Chernick (Holland PA)
25 out of 25 found this review helpful
The author does a marvelous job of presenting Sherlock Holmes stories through the thought of Dr. Watson, very much in the style of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. However instead of simple detective mysteries each story has a probabilistic theme.
After reading the first couple of chapters I thought this is great for me but I am a statistician. Could a novice understand the complex explanations and story that enhances ones memory about the principles as the author suggests? I think so. The later chapters convince me.
There the author goes over the waiting time paradox, capture-recapture methods and other related problems in the chapter on the poor observer. The famous Monte Hall problem and the birthday problem are also covered and well explained through the eyes of Watson based on the work of Sherlock Holmes and his brother.
Great for a math-phobe like me. August 20, 2007
Greg Peterson (Minneapolis, MN)
2 out of 2 found this review helpful
I am frankly shocked by the negative reviews, although it could be that the reviewers are math-lovers who just find the stories too basic or something. For me, a relative novice to math thinking, the book is a delight. Bruce manages to capture much of the tone of the original Holmes books and works interesting math illustrations (some, to be fair, a little contrivedly) into the stories. Minus the math, the stories still have enough whimsy, flair, and character development to warrant reading them. Perhaps my expectations were so low for anything to do with a subject I avoid that "Conned Again" is getting all but a free pass from me, but I really enjoy this work and will look for more of Bruce's writing.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 13
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