The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It |  | Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: Wiley
List Price: $45.00
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Rating:  30 reviews
Sales Rank: 20455
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 304
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.2
Dimensions (in): 9.1 x 5.9 x 1
ISBN: 0470387955
Dewey Decimal Number: 658.155
EAN: 9780470387955
ASIN: 0470387955
Publication Date: April 27, 2009
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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Product Description
An essential guide to the calibrated risk analysis approach The Failure of Risk Management takes a close look at misused and misapplied basic analysis methods and shows how some of the most popular "risk management" methods are no better than astrology! Using examples from the 2008 credit crisis, natural disasters, outsourcing to China, engineering disasters, and more, Hubbard reveals critical flaws in risk management methods–and shows how all of these problems can be fixed. The solutions involve combinations of scientifically proven and frequently used methods from nuclear power, exploratory oil, and other areas of business and government. Finally, Hubbard explains how new forms of collaboration across all industries and government can improve risk management in every field. Douglas W. Hubbard (Glen Ellyn, IL) is the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE) and the author of Wiley's How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (978-0-470-11012-6), the #1 bestseller in business math on Amazon. He has applied innovative risk assessment and risk management methods in government and corporations since 1994. "Doug Hubbard, a recognized expert among experts in the field of risk management, covers the entire spectrum of risk management in this invaluable guide. There are specific value-added take aways in each chapter that are sure to enrich all readers including IT, business management, students, and academics alike"
—Peter Julian, former chief-information officer of the New York Metro Transit Authority. President of Alliance Group consulting "In his trademark style, Doug asks the tough questions on risk management. A must-read not only for analysts, but also for the executive who is making critical business decisions."
—Jim Franklin, VP Enterprise Performance Management and General Manager, Crystal Ball Global Business Unit, Oracle Corporation.
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Showing reviews 1-5 of 30
 A few cogent points but overall a great disappointment October 13, 2009
Bob Ross
2 out of 8 found this review helpful
The author makes a few cogent points but his treatment is unimpressive on the whole. For example, Hubbard makes a point of saying that it is important to evaluate the effectiveness of one's risk management efforts. He is right about that. But then he goes on to identify the criteria by which the effectiveness of a risk management effort should be evaluated. Unfortunately, his 'criteria' amount to little more than "Have you assessed your risk in the way that I say you should have?" I'm sorry, but the quality of a risk assessment (assuming that his argument that probabilistic risk assessment is the only acceptable way to assess a risk is correct, which it isn't) is not the same as the effectiveness of any risk management action which might or might not follow said assessment. The effectiveness of a risk management action is determined by the nature of the action and the characteristics of the risk in question, not by the quality of the assessment that might precede it. Hubbard, as is typical of too many quants, appears to be oblivious that there is more to management than mere mathematical analyses. There are other criticism that could be leveled at this book but they are all on this same fundamental level. Risk assessment, even when it is done right, is not all there is to risk analysis and there is more to risk management than either risk assessment or risk analysis. Unfortunately, Hubbard appears to be clueless outside the narrow bounds of probabilistic risk assessment as it might be appropriately applied within a narrow slice of the larger world of risk management.
 Excellent Resource October 12, 2009
Burt Jackson (Huntsville, AL)
4 out of 4 found this review helpful
This is an incredibly well written book. I would recommend it to anyone in IT. It will open your eyes and could scare you at the same time. All those numbers and figures you value so dearly may not be as useful as you once thought.
 Clearly unaware of engineering risk assessment October 4, 2009
TM2
1 out of 9 found this review helpful
Mr. Hubbard provides significant input regarding the failures of probabilistic risk assessment. Clearly, he lacks depth regarding engineering risk assessment that has been applied appropriately and successfully for many years. Readers should review B. John Garrick's recently released book entitled "Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks." This text not only describes the process of probabilistic risk assessment, but the text also provides examples that are understandable by the non-scientist/engineer. Mr. Hubbard has focused on the Monte Carlo process as well as the power law. Again, he has failed to clearly understand engineering risk assessment. Both techniques are useful, but these techniques are simply "tools" among a collection of approaches that provide valuable insight to risk. Weibull analysis, for example, is an excellent tool used well by many technologists, when appropriate. Event sequence analysis, event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, etc., are also widely used where appropriate. Qualitative methods are also useful: FMEA, "What if", etc.
Most importantly, how to fix it September 24, 2009
R. Hobbes PhD (St. Louis)
4 out of 5 found this review helpful
This is a fascinating review of major problems with risk management and how to fix them. The author points out that unlike many other thing, the effectiveness of risk management is not immediately apparent and may never be evaluated at all. This allows for half-baked methods to be adopted for indefinite periods and causes great losses. Hubbard proposes that risk management methods can at least be "component tested" so that we can confirm that the parts work. He points out that a lot of this research has been done and does not paint a flattering portrait for existing methods.
His proposed methods, instead, are based on procedures that have be tested in controlled experiments for long periods and show a measurable improvement in decisions.
I was turned on to this author after reading The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Sam Savage - another great assessment of common flaws in decision analysis and risk management.
Best read I've had on the topic September 9, 2009
Merriam W.
4 out of 4 found this review helpful
Hubbard sets out with a big goal and meets it. He gives the most complete explanation of how certain flaws evolved in risk management. While Hubbard's historical analysis is not as detailed as Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, the Failure of Risk Management is much more in depth about the details of the flaws about models use for all aspects of risk management. The next time someone is pushing a new, unproven, risk management method down our throats in our organization, this is the book I'll push back with. Show me the evidence it works, or don't waste my time. Bravo.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 30
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