Fuzzy Math: The Essential Guide to the Bush Tax Plan

With huge budget surpluses just ahead, the question of whether to cut taxes has shifted to when? and by how much? With Fuzzy Math, Paul Krugman dissects the Bush tax proposal and shows us who wins, who loses, and how quickly the tax cuts will consume the surplus. Always the equal-opportunity critic when it comes to faulty economics, Krugman also tucks into the Democratic alternatives to the Bush plan.

This little book packs a big wallop. Together with major media appearances, it puts Krugman's wisdom and steely-eyed analysis firmly at the center of the debate about how to spend upwards of $2 trillion. It may very well change the course of history.

Conservatives will find the book biased, which it is since Krugman is pretty democratic. Although conservatives might be able to argue the political philosophy of progressive versus regressive taxes, they will find it very difficult to challenge the numbers that Krugman presents. The end conclusion is that Bush has used "fuzzy math" to propose a tax cut and that the money is just not there for such a huge cut. Krugman is right.

Even though the cuts have already come, this book is a great (and quick) read because it gives a clear explanation of social security, medicare, and other issues related to the national budget. Clear, concise, and easy to understand.


This is important. Everybody should read this book.   September 10, 2001
R. dolce (evanston, illinois United States)
16 out of 19 found this review helpful

This book needs to be read by every voting American, even those who support the Bush tax cut. Author Paul Krugman clearly explains the economic and political environments in which this tax plan takes place and concludes, first, that the tax cut is not only a bad idea but might have serious consequences as the Social Security/Medicare system becomes strapped and second, that "at every stage of the debate Bush and his people have tried to obscure what they were really proposing."
"Fuzzy Math" is a book written for intelligent lay people. I personally read it in two sittings (it's only 122 short pages), then, thinking that I must have missed smething, went back and read it again. It turns out I missed nothing. Krugman breaks down complex economic concepts and explains them with great lucidity and a little bit of wit. It's really an easy read.
Krugman begins by explaining how Bush arrived at his tax cut as the centerpiece of his campaign, first as an antidote to Steve Forbes' "Flat Tax" crusade and second, to secure the support of the far right elements of the Republican Party. He then describes the efficacy of tax cuts as an economic tool, particularly as they might be used to stimulate a sluggish economy (never an issue for Bush until the economy suddenly turned sour). He concludes that this is best left to the Federal Reserve Board's manipulation of interest rates. He further compares "demand side" tax reductions, aimed primarily at consumers, with "supply side" cuts which are directed toward potential producers and demonstrates that despite the Reagan rhetoric, the economic recovery of the early '80's was demand side driven and that a real supply side expansion occurred during the late '90's happened despite Bill Clinton's upper bracket tax increase.
Nexy Krugman explains the Federal Budget, beginning with where the money goes and then where it comes from. He explains that we've gone from being a "military state" to a "retirement state". He admittedly caricatures that, based on federal spending "the federal government has become a large retirement community that does some military stuff and a bit of humanitarian stuff on the side". He also explains that our national retirement program is not fully funded (as is a private pension plan). Instead the current group of retirees is living off the contributions of the current group of workers and that enormous problems will begin when the number of retirees begins to swell as the number of workers begins to shrink (about 2011). This is aleo why privatization of Social Security/Medicare is a bad idea: it will simply pull the rug out from under the feet of the current group of retirees. He discusses the origins of the recent budget surplus andhow it was tied to the recent economic boom.
He then breaks down the Bush tax cut, explaining who gets what. Using figures from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Citizens for Tax Justice (stats from conservative think tanks are unavailable) he concludes that about 40% of American families will get nothing or very little while the top 1% will collect about 45% of the benefits. He analyzes the Treasury Department's statistics in light of this data and exposes the hucksterism involved in the official Bush line. Unfortunately this is the only piont at which Krugman cites sources although he uses statistics elsewhere in this book. More citations would have given the book a little more authority.
Finally he proposes an alternative, a "smaller, faster, cheaper, better" cut that will get money into the hands of consumers faster and will be "front loaded" (benefits sooner) as opposed to Bush's "back loaded" (most benefits arrive much later) and so will have an immediate effect on the economy.
Krugman concludes with a swipe at the "utter dishonesty of the sales campaign".
There is no reason why every American citizen should not read this book. It explains what's going on in the tax debate and does so clearly and simply. In fact, bookshelves in any participatory democracy should be full of books like this.